|
Description:
|
Обґрунтовано необхідність оцінки рівня економічної безпеки регіонів З використанням методу головних компонент визначено чотири основні внутрішні фактори (компоненти) економічної безпеки регіонів та встановлено їх взаємозв’язок з відповідними показниками За результатами проведеного дослідження побудовано прогнозні моделі економічної безпеки регіонів національної економіки в розрізі
регіональних кластерів Представлено результати моделювання для Дніпропетровської, Вінницької та Волинської областей. Introduction The principal internal factors of the economic security of regions are defined by principal
component analysis and their correlation with respective indicators is determined Four principal factors
(components) of the economic security of regions are identified Forecasting models for the economic security
of regions of the national economy are constructed by regional cluster using the results of the study The study is
performed by data on main socio-economic indicators of 24 Ukrainian regions over 2008–2015 and by economic
security clusters (classified as “good”, “sufficient” and “satisfactory”) defined in previous studies
The purpose of the study is to construct sets of forecasting models for the economic security of the national
economy by regional cluster
Methods Methods of theoretical generalization are used to study and systematize the factors of the economic
security of regions; multidimensional statistical methods such as principal component analysis are used to define
their correlation with the respective indicators; the method of comparison allows for defining common and
distinctive features of the results of computation of the economic security of regions using the constructed models
Results Principal component analysis used for defining the internal factors of economic security of regions
and their correlations with the respective indicators allows for identifying four principal factors (components) of
the economic security of regions Results of principle component analysis show that the significance of the first
four latent factors for the overall sample is 86 86% of the dispersion of the analyzed variables (13 14% error);
for “good” cluster it is 87 3% (12 7% error); for “sufficient” cluster it is 88 03% (11 97% error); for “satisfactory”
cluster it is 86 0% (14 0% error) Four sets of forecasting models are constructed, each consisting of a mathematical
description of four principal components for each sample The implementation of the constructed models confirms
the inclusion of the regions to the respective regional clusters The dynamics of the indicators shows the economic
situation and processes in the regions in the respective periods
Conclusion The applied character of the constructed models is substantiated by their practical implementation
using actual socio-economic data for the regions represented in each of the regional clusters (Dnipropetrovsk,
Vinnytsia, and Volyn regions), over the period of 2008–2015 Further studies should focus on making the scale
of the economic security performance for the constructed forecasting models, to determine the performance and
estimate the probability of insecurity occurrences in the economy using expected (planned) figures of economic
development in a region. |